The eternal owner-operator question: take the broker's contract offer at $2.05/mile, or stay on the spot board hoping for $2.30+? Most discussions of this online are dogma. The real answer is conditional. Here's the framework.

The single number that decides it

Tender rejection rate. It's the percentage of contracted loads that carriers refuse, forcing brokers back to the spot board. SONAR's OTRI (Outbound Tender Reject Index) is the cleanest version. DAT publishes a similar metric.

The rule:

  • OTRI > 8%: Tight market. Spot pays a premium. Stay 80%+ spot.
  • OTRI 5-8%: Mixed. Run 50/50.
  • OTRI < 5%: Soft market. Contract pays better than spot. Lock in 60-80% contract.

Why? When rejections are high, brokers can't cover their committed freight at the rate they bid. They pay up on spot to fill it. When rejections are low, capacity is abundant, brokers don't need to chase, and spot rates fall below what carriers signed up for at contract bid season.

As of May 5, 2026, OTRI is 4.1%. That's a contract market.

The math: a worked example

Assume you're running 11,000 miles/month, all-in needed at $2.40/mile to hit your target net.

Tight market (OTRI 9%):

  • 100% spot: average $2.55/mile all-in × 11,000 = $28,050
  • 50/50 mix: $2.55 × 5,500 + $2.30 × 5,500 = $26,675
  • Spot wins by $1,375/month.

Soft market (OTRI 4%):

  • 100% spot: average $2.30/mile × 11,000 = $25,300
  • 70% contract / 30% spot: $2.40 × 7,700 + $2.20 × 3,300 = $25,740
  • Contract mix wins by $440/month.

The difference looks small until you factor in deadhead. Soft spot markets also mean longer load-board dwell time, more deadhead between loads, and more time at truck stops burning idle fuel. The contract advantage in soft markets is bigger than the headline rate gap.

Other factors that matter

Cashflow. Contract pays on agreed terms (often 30 days, sometimes 45). Spot pays when the broker pays — and in soft markets that stretches. If your runway is short, contract is friendlier even when spot pays more. Or run spot and use factoring to bridge the cash gap.

Lane familiarity. A contract lane you've run for six months is worth more than the rate alone. You know the dock hours, the broker's tolerance for delays, the truck stops with parking. New spot loads carry hidden costs that don't show up on the rate.

Equipment risk. Reefer and specialized flatbed gear loses money sitting empty. The cost of a low-quality contract load is usually less than the cost of a deadhead day waiting for a premium spot load.

Reputation with brokers. Taking contract loads at fair market builds the relationship that gets you the spot premium when the cycle turns. Pure spot operators never get the call list.

The honest answer

Most healthy small fleets and serious owner-operators run 60-70% contract / 30-40% spot through the cycle, and dial it in either direction based on OTRI. They don't try to time the perfect mix; they capture the steady cashflow on contract and let spot top off with the high-paying outliers.

What gets owner-ops into trouble is one of two extremes:

  1. 100% spot in a soft market — you'll grind the truck for less than your operating cost.
  2. 100% contract in a tight market — you'll watch your friends bank double rates while you eat your bid from six months ago.

Read the market. The OTRI number is free, public, and updated daily. There's no excuse for running blind.

What to do this week

OTRI is 4.1%. That's contract-favorable territory. If your contract book is light, this is the week to call brokers and lock in summer commitments before peak shipping season firms the market.

If you're spot-only and feeling the squeeze, factoring keeps cashflow moving until rates turn. We broke down the math in factoring when rates are soft.

For weekly rate snapshots and the broader freight rates beat, check back every Tuesday.